Intuição, tomada de decisão e desastres naturais: caso do Instituto Nacional de Gestão e Redução de Riscos de Desastres (INGD) - Moçambique

Abstract

Disasters are unpredictable scenarios with high consequences for human beings and their property, demanding quick solutions. Floods, floods, cyclones, tropical depressions, among other natural disasters, are examples of scenarios that require the intervention of the National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction (INGD), in order to provide assistance to affected populations, requiring decision-making certain measures aimed at achieving the main objective (saving lives and property). Disaster scenarios, characterized by a lot of pressure, make it impossible for the actors involved to use rational thinking, resorting to intuition. The objective of the research is to understand the ways in which intuition can be used in decision-making in times of natural disasters. Specifically: identify whether there is a predominance of intuitive or rational behavior among those involved in decisions; explain the influence of knowledge on the interpretation of tasks in situations of natural disasters; and, explain how the environmental and social context influences interpretation and improvisation on intuitive issues. The elements of intuition that supported the research are: experience, knowledge, interpretation, natural context and improvisation. Methodologically: the approach is a qualitative study; regarding the objectives, it is a descriptive research; as for the procedures, it is a case study; research subjects, INGD technicians involved in the various phases of response to natural disasters, chosen intentionally; data collection techniques (interviews, questionnaire, documents, newspapers, and other records); data analysis technique (content analysis). This study investigated the use of intuition in decision-making during natural disasters, considering the elements of the decision making process based on intuition. Factors such as knowledge, experience, interpretation, natural context and improvisation were identified as important in the use of intuition. The study showed that both intuitive and rational behavior are important in disaster situations, due to the lack of predictable scenarios. Knowledge plays a fundamental role in the interpretation of tasks during disasters, accompanied by technical skills acquired through training. Quick interpretation of events and the availability of accurate information are crucial aspects for effective decision-making. The personal characteristics of decision makers, as well as the environmental and social context, significantly influence interpretation and improvisation during intuitive decision making. The results of this study represent a theoretical contribution to the study of decision-making and intuition processes in a field of research that at first glance appears to adhere only to a rational decision-making perspective. It is expected that it can contribute to research in the area of decision-making in Mozambique, helping to understand how people act intuitively in risk situations and helping to improve decision making strategies during natural disasters. The study may awaken the need to improve mechanisms for preventing, mitigating and reducing vulnerability to risk by reducing the exposure of communities and, in this way, contributing to the reduction of potential negative impacts on the population and their livelihoods.