Correlação entre o comportamento dos preços de soja, arroz e variação cambial

Abstract

Brazil stands out worldwide for being an agricultural country, being the sector responsible for ¼ of the country's GDP; soybeans and rice have a large generation in the development of several states in the country. Brazil is the largest producer of oilseeds and the ninth largest rice production in the world, generating income and economic growth, in addition to contributing to other sector sectors; thus, the prices paid for Brazilian products have a great impact on the economy and income of producers. The formation of the price of these products involves several variables, among them, such as quotations in international markets and the exchange rate. This study aims to verify the correlation between these variables, in the formation of the average price of soybeans and rice in Brazil in the period from 2001 to 2020. The data were collected at the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA), at the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics at the University of São Paulo (CEPEA / USP) and at the Rio Grandense do Arroz Institute (IRGA), from the data collected, grouped and interpreted, it was noticed that the exchange rate in the studied period was more correlated with the price in real terms, the international price, both for soybeans and rice. It is worth mentioning that although the correlation with international quotations is lower than with the exchange rate, they are also major indicators of prices in the Brazilian market.