Análise da probabilidade de lucro e risco atrelado a diferentes sistemas de produção agropecuária na Campanha Gaúcha

Abstract

The region of the Campanha Gaúcha has a strong tradition in beef cattle breeding, however, in recent years the activity has been losing space for other systems, mainly for soybean farming. However, although the soybean crop presents itself as a profitable system, it’s necessary to consider some variables that can compromise the profit of the property. Therefore, the objective of this work was to evaluate the profitability and risk of different investment models for the agricultural production of a rural property through the use of simulations of productive and economic scope and the risk analysis for these models. The production scenarios evaluated were finishing of beef cattle in Natural Pasture; Improved Natural Pasture; cultivated pasture of Sudan Grass and Soybean Crop. The simulations were modeled using spreadsheets, where the biological and economic parameters of the different models were arranged and their results were sampled through Palisade Company’s @Risk software. Firstly, we can observe an advantage of the scenario where the Sudan Grass is used when compared to the others in the factor’s productivity and maximum profitability. However, this advantage is not repeated when we consider the risk factor, where the Improved Natural Pasture stands out, showing a great option for the producer’s safety, in addition to bringing excellent results in the area of profitability. On the other hand, Soybean farming proved to be a high-risk system due mainly to the high injury values found in the simulations.