Análise temporal dos preços do pescado no Brasil: no período de 1990-2014

Abstract

Brazil is in favor of aquaculture due to the contemplation of rural areas with excellent topographies; natural hydrological potential of the river basins; a variety of species and distinct climate. There are other factors that influence this activity, such as consumer behavior with their expectations, needs and consumption habits, as well as all agents that intervene in the marketing channel of the producer to the consumer, in addition to government interventions with policies and regulations. All these influences act on the price variation, causing risks and uncertainties for producers by making it difficult to plan the marketing, production and decision making by producers due to the difficult price forecast. To better understand the behavior of prices and contribute to the generation of information on the Brazilian aquaculture market, this work aimed to analyze the temporal behavior of prices through the cyclical analyzes and the trend of average prices of Brazilian aquaculture fish from 1990 to 2014. The results in the case of the trend, indicates that the time factor influences the orderly and evolutionary movement of fish prices by 37%, that is, factors external to the producer, such as policies, new technology, organization of the marketing structure explain 37% of the oscillations of the price paid to the producer. These factors generate an increasing behavior of the price of the fish, where each year there is a trend of price increase of R $ 0.30. The cyclical behavior showed two oscillations of prices throughout the analyzed series, of decay in the period from 1990 to 2001 and of price evolution during the period from 2002 to 2014. The decline in prices is related to increasing import and export; crisis in extractivist fish production; economic stability and competition with substitute products. The period of price growth, in turn, is related to growing consumption, government projects and programs to encourage aquaculture. Thus, it is important to highlight that the economic, political and fish consumption aspects were the main factors that contributed to the trend of fish prices, demonstrating a favorable internal environment to increase aquaculture production.