Análise econométrica da demanda de passageiros em rotas aéreas regionais comerciais no Brasil

Abstract

The airline industry is considered of strategic importance, both by government and by industry analysts, at national and international level. It is worth mentioning that this statement, its the reality of the brazilian air transportation market, due the continental dimensions of the country lands. So transporting people is essential to decentralize brazilian development. Therefore, air transport operators noting the requirement for air routes that connect diferents regions of the country, need to assess economically and operationally the feasibility of implementing these regional airlines. Wherefore, it is necessary evolving a potential demand forecasting systematics on this regions. Also pointing, that accuracy in estimating air transport demand is a key element for the survival of the companies in this highly competitive market. But on the other hand, there is just a feel number of studies with this scope in the national literature. This study seeks to contribute to the planning of the various actors involved in the air transport industry by proposing a evaluation system for the potential demand for regional air routes, athwart the proposal of econometric models. Airline passenger data of 2013 out of 71 served cities in Brasil are used to establish the model. The estimation model can be utilized in many areas of aviation industry, such as determining hight frequency on a route, forecasting the size of air passenger traffic for potential new airports or potential new routes.