Os planos econômicos e a inflação brasileira: uma análise do período de 1950 - 1999

Abstract

The Brazil for several periods suffered from the evil caused by high inflation rates. From the beginning of its industrialization to the end of the military regime (19301985), the price level was unstable, a fact that was not treated with attention, but from the second half of the 1980s onward inflation towards a hyperinflationary route, which deserves to be highlighted by the unsuccessful attempts of combat, until the Real Plan, where relative price stability is achieved. The present work sought to analyze the measure of constant price increases in different periods in the Brazilian economy, addressing the economic plans and their measures of control and fight against inflation. The objective was to identify the factors that caused inflation and the costs of the measures implemented in the plans prior to the real (Cruzer Plan, Bresser Plan, Summer Plan, Collor Plan 1 and Collor Plan 2). Through a historicalcomparative approach, it analyzed the period from the Plan of Goals, passing through the military governments and the stabilization plans of the late 1980s until the arrival of the Real Plan. It was possible to identify that up to the end of the 1970s, inflation was caused by increases in costs and demand pressures, caused by increases in the prices of imported products, by the inability of the economy to supply the needs of domestic demand and mainly by the way the economy was financed. Inflation became inertial in the late 1980s, largely due to the large indexation of the economy and also the negative expectations of the agents, caused by the dissatisfaction with the results of the measures implemented in the various inflation stabilization plans (freezing, tax increases, high interest rates, etc.). Inflation was only controlled with the arrival of the Real Plan in 1994, which unlike the other plans, fought inflation gradually and not by shocks in the economy, through a strategy elaborated in three phases.