O impacto das crises geopolíticas nas relações comerciais entre China e Taiwan (2000 - 2022)

Abstract

This research investigates the effects of geopolitical crises on trade relations between China and Taiwan from 2000 to 2022, exploring the complex coexistence of economic interdependence and political rivalry. The central objective is to analyze how economic ties, especially in the high-tech and semiconductor sectors, manage to remain stable even during periods of heightened political tension, such as the crises in the Taiwan Strait. The main hypothesis suggests that, despite disputes and threats on both sides, economic interdependence partially mitigates the impact of geopolitical tensions, demonstrating resilience in trade and technological exchanges. Drawing on Keohane and Nye's theory of Complex Interdependence, the study proposes that strong economic ties reduce incentives for conflict escalation. Additionally, it employs securitization theory to understand how China and Taiwan frame their disputes as national security threats, justifying intensified political and military responses during crises, such as Taiwanese elections or the enactment of China's anti-secession laws. The analysis of critical events, such as Taiwan’s presidential elections, Nancy Pelosi’s visit, and the publication of the White Paper on the Taiwan issue, reveals that, while political rhetoric intensifies, bilateral trade remains surprisingly stable, particularly in high-tech products. The findings aim to provide a deeper understanding of the role of economic interdependence in conflict mitigation and to highlight the importance of stability in the Indo-Pacific region for global security. Thus, the research seeks to contribute to understanding the dynamics between China and Taiwan and to discussions on the challenges and opportunities for crisis containment in the international arena.