A política monetária e o regime de metas de inflação no Brasil, entre os anos de 2015 e 2022

Abstract

The Inflation Targeting Regime has been used in Brazil since 1999, incorporated in the context of the Real implementation. On the whole, the inflation targets regime has produced good results, but from 2015 onwards, in Dilma Rousseff’s second presidential term, there was an increased inflationary pressure in Brazil. This increase led inflation to exceed the ceiling of the target's tolerance band and it was only controllable during Temer’s administration. The government of Bolsonaro, affected by the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, also suffered high inflationary pressures, which again led to breaking the inflation ceiling target.Therefore, the general objective of this study was to assess the economic grounds and monetary policy that brought inflation to the center of the target in Michel Temer’s government, and those that prevented the same goal in the Dilma’s and Bolsonaro’s governments. The method predominantly used was the analytical one, which enabled us to identify the phenomena which resulted in inflation, and made it possible to recognize the causes and the feedback given by adopting the Inflation Target Regime. Consequently it is concluded that the efficiency in inflationary control through this regime may be found in the possibilities to anchor the financiers’ expectations, through trust and transparency in monetary policy conduction in addition to the correct application of the macroeconomic triangle and the best of the international scenarios.