Previsão da inflação a partir de mudanças nos gastos públicos no Brasil durante a pandemia COVID-19

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has plagued the world with restrictive social measures to contain the virus, causing a decrease in world production, an excess demand for some goods and mainly an increase in public spending to help contain the virus, generating an increase in inflation. Inflation in Keynes' studies is linked to the variation of money, causing great damage to the economy due to its social consequence, as the value of money does not change equally for all classes. Thus, unevenly affecting different social classes causing gains for some and losses for others. Thus, the need arises to research and understand the inflationary process within society and to discover the economic and social impacts generated. This work aims to analyze the effects caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in Brasil on primary expenditures that affected inflation during 2020. For this purpose, in addition to the theoretical review of the fiscal policy instruments, the data collection and analysis of the IPCA - Broad National Consumer Price Index and IBGE - Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. With the aid of RStudio software, time series were estimated and were statistically treated by the forecast model ARIMA and X13-ARIMA, generating results that show significant levels of significance where primary expenditure affects inflation during the pandemic.