Análise de um modelo de previsão local das inundações do rio Uruguai no município de Itaqui

Abstract

The present work has the general objective of analyzing the Uruguay river floods in the city of Itaqui, RS, using fluviometric data from upstream stations in the municipalities of Porto Xavier, Garruchos, São Borja, and Itaqui itself, based in 2014 data, in order to propose a simplified relationship that can be used as a forecast model. For this, the main hydraulic and hydrological variables involved in the process were investigated in the literature, being made a preliminary analysis of the feasibility of applying a model based on the analogy with electric variables. In this sense, hydrograph profiles of fluviometric heights obtained through the National Water Agency and the Argentine Navy were elaborated and analyzed, comparing the parameters height, width, area and time of wave propagation profiles. Thus, we attempted to equate an empirical correlation of exponential decay of the heights of the flood spikes between Garruchos and Itaqui, in analogy to the model of damping waves in RLC circuits. The coefficient of determination R² = 1, for the exponential decay function obtained by correlation, showing a good fit, was interpreted as a favorable indicator for the application of the electric analog model. In this way, the work can contribute to the forecasting, planning and strategies of public or private agents for the elaboration of means of prevention to the impacts of the floods of the Uruguay river, also being able to contribute to further studies on this topic.