Estudo da correlação entre casos e óbitos de covid-19, saneamento básico e poluição atmosférica (mp2,5) no Brasil: seriam estas possíveis rotas secundárias de transmissão do vírus?

Abstract

The emergence of a new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, caused a global pandemic. The main means of contagion is contact with contaminated people - through droplets in suspension or on surfaces. According to the literature, it is possible that there are secondary routes of transmission of the virus, but because it is a new topic, there are still no conclusive studies about it. Thus, the objective of this study is to investigate the correlation between the cases of COVID-19 in Brazil with basic sanitation, here considered the indicators water supply, sewage collection and sewage treatment, and the concentrations of air pollutants, analyzed here. MP2.5. The analysis referring to basic sanitation took place for the whole of Brazil and for the delimitation of the sample, the municipalities with more and less cases and deaths by COVID-19, and with the best and worst basic sanitation rates were taken into account. The variables considered were: incidence of the disease in 100 thousand inhabitants, accumulated cases, accumulated deaths, deaths accumulated in 100 thousand inhab., Water supply fee, sewage collection fee and water treatment fee. Accumulated data up to March 2021 were considered. The analysis of air pollution was carried out for the states of Acre and São Paulo. The variables studied were: average daily concentration of PM2.5, daily cases of COVID-19 and daily deaths from the disease. Data were collected daily from 12/26/2020 to 2/14/2021 for concentrations of particulate matter and from 1/9/2021 to 3/2/2021 for variables related to the new coronavirus. The correlation study was carried out by means of statistical analyzes using the Spearman correlation method, performed using the Jamovi software. The confidence interval adopted was 95% of statistical significance. The study of sanitation indicators showed a correlation with COVID-19 in three of the twelve analyzes performed, all pointing to a relationship with the water supply indicator. Between this indicator and the variables of accumulated cases and accumulated deaths, the correlation was weak, with a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.391 and 0.374. The variable accumulated deaths in 100 thousand inhabitants showed a very weak correlation, with r equal to 0.181. The other variables were not statistically significant in the 95% range. In the analysis of the concentration of the MP2.5 and COVID-19 concentration, 40 analyzes were performed for the states of Acre and São Paulo, of these, three showed correlation with the MP2.5 concentration for the sampling period: Guarulhos and Taubaté and São Bernardo from Camp. In both studies, the existing correlations were not significant, and it is not possible to state that the variables of basic sanitation and air pollution (MP2.5) have an influence on the disease COVID-19. However, it is noteworthy that variables that are directly linked to the transmission and proliferation of the virus, such as social distance, wearing a mask and cleaning, were not considered, because of this, it is recommended that future studies take into account these and other factors.