Os determinantes do percurso acadêmico no ensino superior público na COORTE de 2010 e 2011

Abstract

This paper analyzes the determinants of academic tracking in higher education in Brazil. Universities that go the main way to access the country's higher education institutions or the National High School Exam - ENEM, through the Unified Selection System, or SISU. The way SISU does or does not affect the dropout rate in higher education, as it allows the candidate to graduate from a city or state other than his or her place of birth. As a consequence of these measures and modifications, the objective of this paper is to identify what are the main factors - individuals, places and institutions - related to school records in Brazil. To achieve the objective of the present research, a quantitative research will be performed using the inductive method. Also an economic analysis, of a multinomial model, analyzing what are the chances of the student being enrolled, evading or completing. There is also a section for survival analysis. Different techniques will be used for its development, so that each one is suitable for the objective being analyzed. They are: Bibliographic Review, Collecting Secondary Data from the Higher Education Census, Economic Analysis. In general, there are no significant differences between the analyzed years, or what happens between the years depends largely on the variable being analyzed. Note that, like the years 2010-2011, the chances of women graduating are even greater than the chances of dropping out. A variable regarding the student's color / race is one of which has a big difference as the years pass. The age factor has no difference between the years analyzed. Studying in the same county of birth, as well as studying in the same state of birth, causes each year to increase course with reduced chances of dropout, statistics as chances of graduating. As with other variables such as survey, extension, monitor and overall course index, each year is also more likely to drop out. From the analysis performed, allowed the variation related to the city, homicide rate and GDP per capita, exercise of influence on the results. Some more likely than others. How the decision to evade or stay enrolled depends on a number of external factors that go beyond the family issue.