Análise da transmissão de preços da soja de diferentes mercados para o Rio Grande do Sul

Abstract

Soy is the main product of agribusiness in Rio Grande do Sul, with a notable participation in exports and in the income of the producer. The projection of price and the verification of the dynamics of price transmission between different markets becomes timely both for decision makers, who act directly in the activity, as for policy makers. Therefore, this study has as general objective to verify the elasticity of transmission between prices of soybeans quoted in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and prices quoted in the states of Mato Grosso and Paraná and the Chicago Stock Exchange. Thus, it seeks to quantify impacts of the explanatory variables on the dependent variable and to verify the space of time in which this transmission takes place, considering the daily data for the year 2016. Models were estimated by the Distributed Lags Method. The results showed a weak short-term relationship between the variables, indicating that price variation is partially transmitted, occurring in up to two days.