Verificação dos resultados gerados por um modelo de simulação aplicado à sistema de cria

Abstract

The agricultural sector, over the last decades, has evolved to modernize, with a closer relationship with industry and deepening of technological, productive and financial relations. The present work was done from tests of different nutritional conditions, based on the body condition score, associated to different breeding stations, which was performed using a simulation model for breeding performance of beef cows with Different scenarios. After the presentation and analysis of the data published by the model, some failures in the final results were verified, mainly in the generation of the average delivery dates. The objective of the present work is to verify in detail the simulation model itself, in order to reveal the possible error, so it is necessary to run the same several times with the most different parameters of analysis, such as different periods of mating seasons, and nutritional states Several, this applying model shoots on different dates with these data, and considering the years of the reproductive life of a womb: reproductive year 1 (isolated), reproductive year 2 (isolated) and reproductive years 1 and 2 (together). After the results obtained with the series of tests applied it is possible to infer that the model is able to generate data only taking into consideration the isolated year 1 of the reproductive life of a matrix and of all its reproductive life, thus considering 5 reproductive periods together. At the point where it referred to a supposed failure to generate the average dates of delivery, which it presented through tests done in previous work, a disproportionate interval of days when compared, for example, the ECC (Body Condition Score) in a 60 days with the ECC Great in an EM of 120 days, the model was run countless times, comparing different average dates of delivery and different ECCs and MS, and verified the veracity of the data generated by the model, Thereby disregarding any alleged failure of the same.