Metodologia de previsão do potencial eólico de curto prazo para planejamento da operação de sistemas elétricos

Abstract

The dependence of the electrical energy demands the search for alternative ways to produce sustainable, such as wind farms. As stated in the Brazil’s Ten Year Plan for Expansion of Energy (PDE), the generation from alternative and sustainable energy sources such as the wind farms is expected to increase from 1% to 7%. Therefore, the deployment of wind farms begins to affect the planning and scheduling of energy operation, mainly in south and northeast Brazilian subsystems. However, despite the wind being a virtually inexhaustible resource, the problem is the inconsistency, not allowing rely on the generation of electrical energy that can vary significantly even in a small interval of time, the system operator must be prepared to act in order of other growers. This operation cannot be based on maps whose wind speed values are the average annual maximum of seasons, and are limited to one or two heights. This paper presents a methodology for assessing meteorological and geographical data to measure the wind field in the turbine hub height, allowing to calculate the instantaneous electric power produced. This estimate can be extended to various points and times of day in order to monitor the variation of wind caused by climatic effects. The CALMET meteorological model WRF and allows to simulate the wind field, creating a probabilistic model for predicting the wind, estimating the electricity to be produced at certain times according to the model of the turbines. ANAREDE The software analyzes the behavior of the energy generated that influenced the flow of power system. With this result the System Operator can perform a more precise coordination of the hydrothermal short term dispatch, as well as the operative power reserve dimensioning.

Wind Forecast

Operation Planning

Wind Generation