Do plano real a nova matriz macroeconômica: a evolução dos indicadores macroeconômicos e identificação dos ciclos econômicos sob a ótica de Keynes e Hayek

Abstract

The present work aims to use the classic debate, Keynes versus Hayek, to question whether changes in the fundamentals of the Brazilian economy, represented by the New Macroeconomic Matrix (NMM), were appropriate for deal with the consequences of the 2008 crisis on the domestic economy, and how the new phase of the economic cycle has been established. It was interpreted as changes in the foundations of the Brazilian economy, from the adoption of the Macroeconomic Tripod to adoption of the New Macroeconomic Matrix, characterized distinct phases of the cycle economic through macroeconomic indicators in the period from 1998 to 2016. The methodology was comparative, aiming to analyze the cycle through convergences and divergences between the two aforementioned authors, and based on the historical description of the periods, a deductive analysis of the cyclical phases was carried out . It is concluded that the external scenario had a great influence on Brazil, and that the conduct of macroeconomic policy directly influenced the phases of the economic cycle. It was possible to observe that the theories of Keynes and Hayek applied to the Brazilian economy have explanatory power for it.