Backtest da estratégia de análise técnica T-26

Abstract

The decrease in the SELIC rate in recent years and the increase in inflation, especially in 2021, took the fixed income projections discounted of inflation to negative interest levels at the end of 2021. Due to this, variable income investments become an enticing option for individual investors to best monetize their investments. Some of the equity investment strategies are technical analysis strategies that, when compared to other investment techniques, are simpler and easier to understand. The present study aimed to test the profit of the T-26 technical analysis strategy for its signals to buy. For this, a survey was carried out for a period of 10 years with a longitudinal cutout. The results show that the average profit of the T-26 strategy is capable of surpassing the benchmark returns (Bovespa Index) and, to a lesser extent, the returns of fixed income investment (CDI). However, when compared to the buy and hold strategy, the T-26 strategy was not able to obtain superior results, suggesting to the investor that the best strategy to invest in equities is still the buy and hold strategy.