Análise temporal do ciclo da bovinocultura de corte na fronteira oeste do Rio Grande do Sul

Abstract

In Brazil, the beef cattle industry is one of the economic pillars of the primary sector. Besides the growth of the Brazilian market beef meat, producers constantly negatively critique the received value for their products. This is because this product is considered a commodity, being vulnerable to questions of offer and demand, seasonality, and climatic factors. The livestock cycle is a determinant factor to the price formation of the meat production chain, thus understanding its functionality can help the cattle breeder on decision making, mainly related to the best time to offer its product and guarantee a better valuation. The present work aimed to evaluate the conditioning factors that affect the beef cattle cycle on the West Border of Rio Grande do Sul from January 2014 to December 2019 and to establish a comparative analysis with the prices of the State of São Paulo, known as the main price regulator of the country. Trend analyses were performed on the cattle and calf price, as well as cyclic and seasonality analysis, exchange relationship between cattle and calves, and calf agio. The obtained results demonstrate a livestock cycle of five years, with evident monthly and annual variations, and although there were times when CTPEC and CEPEA showed differences in prices for both cattle and calves, these were not pronounced for the price cyclicity. Furthermore, an identical curve behavior was noted for both databases, demonstrating that the livestock cycle shows similar behavior in different regions. The obtained results also demonstrate the influence of the cattle price over the calf price, the first directing the second. Additionally, we concluded that the cattle price did not vary markedly between the databases. However, the calf price markedly varied among them, indicating the calf is better valued in the region of São Paulo.