Retorno de investimentos de uma empresa de embalagens por meio de análise de cenários

Abstract

The main objective of this work was to carry out demonstrations with the purpose of providing a better visualization of the investment analysis in a packaging company. The capital to realize an investment, if it is from third parties, is relatively expensive due to its high rates, if it is equity capital there must also be a minimum expected return, and if there are many factors involved, such as the lose the investment. The research has a quantitative emphasis, since it is generated through the use of spreadsheets, where from a cash flow, the pessimistic, realistic and optimistic scenarios were determined, each one with its specific peculiarities and with that it was given the application of financial, sensitivity and economic methods through its indicators adopted for the analysis of the theme. Among the methods used in the analysis is the IRR and the NPV. In the sensitivity analysis, the expected NPV, NPV standard deviation and NPV variation coefficient are considered. Considering the analysis of all indicators used and seen together that both scenarios could be subject to acceptance, therefore, they obtained a similarity in some results. But when analyzing the details, the scenario that is best accepted is the optimist, because it has the highest NPV, the highest amplitude of the NPV standard deviation, the lowest NPV coefficient (the lowest risk among the three), the highest index of profitability between the scenarios. Finally, the research shows how important it is before making an investment, whether to perform a return-on-investment assessment.