Dívida pública brasileira: uma análise da sustentabilidade da política fiscal entre os anos de 1999 a 2016

Abstract

The discussion of how the economy of a continental country, such as Brazil, has evolved from a growth above the average of the last decades to one of the greatest crises in its history, leads to the debate about the Brazilian economic on the theme of fiscal policy sustainability. Thus, this work consisted in verifying if there was sustainability of the fiscal policy adopted in Brazil between the years of 1999 to 2016. For this purpose, the public borrowing trajectory was analyzed using three indicators of fiscal sustainability: Debt/GDP, a comparison between the real interest rate and the real GDP growth and the primary gap. It was verified that the external conditions were responsible for much of the crisis experienced by Brazil in 2002. However, in later years they were extremely important due to the increase in commodities prices and the increase in foreign capital inflows into the country. In the most recent period, the deteriorating economic environment has created a warning signal for the economic team, which will face enormous challenges in balancing the Debt/GDP, ratio in an attempt to make public debt sustainable again. The results indicate that, for all three indicators, fiscal policy was unsustainable in the years 1999 and 2009, as well as in the years 2014 to 2016. Although there is a disagreement between the indicators, it is concluded that, through the DLSP trajectory, the years 2001 and 2002 also presented unsustainability of fiscal policy, but from 2003 to 2013, with exception of 2009, fiscal policy was sustainable.